Canada’s housing market cooled in March as national home sales declined by 4.8% month-over-month, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The drop marks a shift from February’s activity, suggesting buyers may be holding off amid ongoing uncertainty. While new listings increased by 34.2% month-over-month, it wasn’t enough to boost overall market momentum. Home prices also edged lower, signaling continued softening across many regions.
“Up until this point, declining home sales have mostly been about tariff uncertainty. Going forward, the Canadian housing space will also have to contend with the actual economic fallout,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “In short order we’ve gone from a slam-dunk rebound year to treading water at best.”
Spring 2025 Ushers in a Buyer’s Market
With the sales-to-new listings ratio sitting at 45.9%, the market is leaning toward a buyer’s market. While ratios between 40% and 60% typically indicate a balanced market, anything below 40% signals buyer-friendly conditions, where supply outpaces demand. Given that we’re just above that threshold (and at the lowest level since February 2009), buyers currently have the upper hand, particularly in regions where inventory is growing faster than sales.
Average Price Inches Up, But Year-Over-Year Trend Still Down
The national average home price rose slightly to $678,331 in March 2025 but remains down 3.7% year-over-year, reflecting continued affordability concerns and weaker demand in several key markets. Inventory levels grew, with 165,800 properties listed for sale, up a whopping 18.3% from last year but still below the long-term March average of 174,000.
Despite more listings, sales declined, pushing the national sales-to-new listings ratio down to 45.9%, the lowest level since February 2009. This shift signals a cooling market where buyers are cautious and sellers slowly return, waiting for more apparent signs of stability.
Affordable Markets Drive Price Gains, While Expensive Ones Decline
In March 2025, smaller and more affordable markets saw the most substantial year-over-year home price increases. Saguenay CMA led the way with a +22.5% surge, bringing the average home price to $372,623. Close behind, Trois Rivières CMA rose +21.2% to $393,128, and Sherbrooke CMA jumped 20.9% to reach $515,714. Newfoundland & Labrador also saw significant growth, climbing 18.2% to $352,370, while Regina posted a +17.6% increase with prices hitting $365,630. These gains indicate a growing preference for more affordable markets, even as elevated supply in higher-priced regions creates opportunities for strategic buyers.
Conversely, some of Canada’s priciest markets experienced notable declines. Greater Vancouver saw the steepest drop, with prices falling 5.8% to $1,239,988. Niagara Region followed with a -4.9% decline, and London and St. Thomas dipped -4.6%. Nationally, the average home price fell -3.7% year-over-year to $678,331, reflecting a modest cooling in the overall market despite strong growth in select regions.
Smaller Cities and Prairie Markets Show Sales Growth
Similar to February, more affordable markets posted notable growth. Trois Rivières CMA stood out with a strong +19.3% increase in sales, signaling growing buyer interest in smaller Quebec markets. Edmonton led among major cities with a +13.6% increase, suggesting renewed confidence in Alberta’s housing sector. Montreal CMA followed closely at 11.7%. These gains highlight the shifting demand toward more affordable or stable regions where buyers may capitalize on favorable conditions.
Even some of Canada’s most competitive and high-demand regions are now grappling with the effects of economic uncertainty. In March 2025, several Canadian real estate markets experienced a significant sales decline compared to the previous year, with most of the downturn concentrated in British Columbia and Ontario.
Niagara Region led the decline, down 42.1% year-over-year from 817 to 473 sales. London and St. Thomas followed with a 32.7% drop down to 510 sales. In B.C., Fraser Valley saw a 25.7% decrease from 1,235 to 917 sales, while Hamilton-Burlington fell 19.2% from 870 to 703. Even the typically active Greater Toronto Area recorded a 23.6% decline to 5,011 sales.
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, this market slowdown could present an opportunity. If you have the time and patience, deals may be more accessible than in previous spring markets. Prices are softening in many regions, and with rising inventory, you may find yourself with more negotiating power. For sellers, however, the message is clear: strategy matters more than ever. With buyers holding back and competition increasing, expect longer timelines and the need to work closely with a knowledgeable real estate agent to price, market, and position your home effectively.
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