Canadian real estate demand is nearing historic weakness but it doesn’t appear buyers have noticed. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows home prices inched higher in March, hitting a multi-month high. At the same time the market has seen sales fall to the lowest level in over a decade, while inventory climbed and pushed the demand balance to the weakest level since the Great Recession.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Hit A Multi-Month High Post-Revisions
The price of a typical home across Canada, a.k.a. the benchmark composite HPI.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Canadian existing home prices hit a new multi-month high. The unadjusted price of a typical home hit $712,200 in March, rising just 0.04% (+$300) in the month. That minor climb was just enough to bring prices to a 7-month high, back to September 2024-levels.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Fail Second Attempt At Growth
The annual rate of growth for the price of a typical home across Canada, a.k.a. the benchmark composite HPI.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
The struggle for price growth is real. Prices were down 2.1% (-$15,300) compared to last year, with annual growth now the weakest since September 2024. It’s also now clear that annual growth’s second attempt at moving into positive territory has failed, indicating that buyers see prices as too rich for their blood.
Those recalling that February was higher aren’t imagining it. The composite for February 2025 had been reported initially at $713,700, but it appears the modeling set has been revised. CREA conducts annual revisions of the HPI that impact historical data, but they typically are done with the May release. This was two months early.
The seemingly random application of the self-imposed rules by the industry isn’t without controversy. Previously, the methodology update shrunk the national price peak and thus correction, statistically eliminating the bubble. At least one prominent economist no longer uses the index, labeling it as “unreliable.”
Caveat emptor.
Canadian Real Estate Demand Falls To Weakest Level Since 2009
Canadian real estate demand is the weakest its been in well over a decade. Unadjusted home sales climbed 9.3% from last year to 39,202 units in March. Last month saw the weakest sales since 2009, right in the thick of the Global Financial Crisis. It’s also worth recalling that the population was much smaller back then—about 1 in 7 people in Canada weren’t present in 2009.
At the same time inventory has been on the rise. Unadjusted new listings climbed 13.1% to 86,953 homes in March. This helped to push the sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) to 45.1%, down 11.1 points from last year. That places the market on the lower end of balanced territory, which is unusually weak for a national measure. It was the lowest SNLR since 2009, with the mid-90s being the only other time it fell to this level.