It was a tough first quarter for new condo sales in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA), with activity falling to levels not seen in decades. According to a new Urbanation report, only 533 new condo apartments were sold in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025—a 62 per cent drop year-over-year, and 88 per cent below the 10-year average.
That’s the lowest quarterly total since 1995, and in the City of Toronto had its weakest performance since 1990, with 215 units sold, says Urbannation.
“The new condo market is currently working through its most challenging period to date, which has become further impacted by the uncertainty and cost escalations caused by the trade conflict with the U.S. ” says Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation.
Fewer pre-sale launches, more cancellations
Slow sales are leading to a full-stop for some developers; only two projects launched for presales during the first quarter, totaling 275 units. Since the start of 2024, developers have pulled back significantly: 28 presale projects (5,734 units) have either been cancelled, placed on hold, entered receivership or converted to purpose-built rentals. That includes four projects, representing 1,042 units, that were impacted in Q1 alone.
Inventory levels keep climbing
Urbanation reports that unsold inventory reached 23,918 units at the end of the quarter—up 6 pe cent from last year and 58 per cent above the 10-year average. At the current pace of sales, that translates to 78 months of supply—about seven times the 10 to 12-month range typically considered balanced, Urbanation says.
The unsold inventory breakdown includes:
- 10,934 units in pre-construction
- 11,073 units under construction
- 1,911 completed units that remain unsold
The number of completed and unsold units has more than doubled since this time last year, reaching its highest level since Q1 1993. And with another 2,411 unsold units scheduled to complete by year’s end, that number is expected to rise.
Prices under pressure
The average selling price for new condos in Q1 came in at $1,151 per square foot, down 7 per cent year-over-year. According to Urbanation, many of the projects that managed to generate sales activity leaned heavily on incentives — things like cash-back credits at closing, rental guarantees and extended deposit payment plans.
Meanwhile, the asking price for unsold inventory averaged $1,339 psf, down 2 per cent from a year ago—pointing to what the report says is a “large gap between prices that buyers demand versus prices that most developers need to sell for in order to build.”
Hildebrand points out the implications of this slowdown go beyond market numbers. “With the Toronto region relying on condos for more than one-half of its total housing development, the magnitude of this slowdown will result in severe supply repercussions.”
