The Greater Toronto real estate market is still in freefall as the anticipated boom proves to be an epic bust. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows the price of a typical home (composite benchmark) continued to fall in April. A typical house in the City is now under the $1 million mark, as the multi-year downturn led to the highest April inventory in over 15 years, and sales fell to 90s-real estate crash levels.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Dip, City Plunges Below $1 Million
Greater Toronto home prices are still falling. TRREB reported a composite benchmark price of $1.01 million in April, falling 5.4% (-$58.1k) from last year. In the City of Toronto, it fell to $985.4k, down 4.5% (-$46.2k) over the same period. Buyers haven’t seen the composite this close to the million dollar mark in years. The City’s benchmark falling under the $1 million threshold is a grim milestone for a market some experts thought was invincible.
Toronto Home Sales Crash To 1997 Lows As More Sellers Appear
Greater Toronto real estate sales through the MLS.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Driving the price declines was the collapse of sales. Annual growth was down 23.3% with just 5,601 home sales recorded in April. It was the weakest buying demand since 2020, the first full month of pandemic lockdowns, when buyers faced physical barriers to purchasing a home. Outside of 2020, one has to go all the way back to 1997—the depths of the last major real estate bubble collapse.
At the same time, inventory has been applying significant downward pressure on prices. Sellers listed 18,836 homes for sale last month, up 8.1% from last year. Fewer buyers and more sellers drove the sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) down to 29.7%, placing the market firmly in a buyer (or bear) market. With new listings more than triple the volume of sales, experts generally see falling prices with such a weak demand balance.
Toronto Real Estate Hasn’t Seen This Much Inventory In 15 Years
Greater Toronto real estate active listings for April.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Over the past few years, fewer sales and higher listings have led to inventory buildup. Total active listings climbed to 27.4k homes for sale at the end of April, up 54.0% from last year. It was the highest inventory for the month for at least 15 years, when the data series began. However, the odds favor seeing the record go back much further. The population has grown 65% since sales were this weak (pandemic excluded), and a near-record low persists.
Toronto’s collapse in real estate demand is mainly attributed to tariffs. Tariffs certainly contribute, but ignoring that market demand has been weak for years is naive. Canada’s largest bank previously warned that investors have replaced first-time buyers, after pricing them out of the market. Investors have disappeared with the easy money, but prices have yet to fall enough to incentivize buyers to jump back into the market.
Affordability is now just one of Toronto’s hurdles before reviving its market. The city’s unemployment rate is now 8%, and the exodus of young workers to Alberta continues. That makes Toronto a very different value proposition compared to the market they were priced out of a few years prior. Never count out a quick recovery, but expecting one may be wishful thinking.