Canada’s international student landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, and it’s not just the quantity of students. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data shows that new study permit applications were down in March. Old news, eh? What is new though is the shift in demand origination. China, once the top source of international students, is on track to fall behind Guinea, a country with 1% of the population that suddenly surged after a military coup. This shift reveals that studying in Canada is seen less as a sign of prestigious education and more as an immigration tool.
Canadian Study Permit Applications Drop Sharply
Canadian study permit applications continue to fall as higher regulations and weaker demand converge. The IRCC received 18.6k new applications in March, down 43% from last year. Year to date (YTD) they’ve received 74.7k, a decline of 54% from last year. While the drop was anticipated, the shift in student origin is worth noting.
India Still Tops Canada For Study Permits, But Demand Plummets
New study permit applications received by the Government of Canada (GoC) from Indian students.
Source: IRCC; Better Dwelling.
Canada’s primary sources of study permit applications are quickly changing. The largest source of applications YTD remains India (20%), but it’s a sharp decline from 2024 when it represented over 1 in 3 received (36%). India replaced China as the primary source of students back in 2018, and has held that spot ever since. However, it’s worth emphasizing how fast this segment has dropped out as tensions rise between Canada and India.
The second largest share of applications YTD is Nigeria (9.7%), roughly the same as 2024. It’s held this spot since 2022, and even with India shedding 16 points, it remains less than half the share. At nearly 1 in 10 applications, Nigeria is still a massive concentration of the country’s international students.
Canadian Study Permit Applications From Guinea Surpasses China
New study permit applications from January to March for Canada’s top 5 applicant sources.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
An emerging trend is the rise of Guinea’s share of new study permit applications. The French-speaking nation represented 7.6% of applications YTD, making it the 3rd-largest group. It ended 2024 as the 4th-largest source of new study applications, with the share increasing roughly 50% YTD.
The data fails to capture how rapidly this shift occurred. In 2021, the country represented a microscopic share of applications. Guinea has now surpassed China as a source of international study permits, despite its population being 1% of the size.
Speaking of China, the appeal of studying in Canada has sharply declined in recent years. The country represented 5.3% of YTD applications, just behind Guinea. China was Canada’s largest source of international students until 2017, but ended 2024 as the 3-rd largest.
Canadian Schools Lose Prestige, Gain Reputation For Immigration
Canada’s permit application decline is attributed to policy. The country is seeking to lower the number of international students as a share of the population. However, Canada began to taper after a sharp decline in international student visa demand. As for the source of where students come from? That’s due to the type of student policymakers pursued.
Behind the shift for Chinese students is a combination of factors, but it’s mostly an issue of prestige. Canada’s sterling reputation was tarnished by an explosion of diploma mills that have gained a reputation as an “immigration backdoor.” The focus on quantity over quality for over a half-decade also left enough time for foreign schools to level-up. Now China’s top universities outrank Canada, despite the huge lead we had to invest in domestic research.
A lack of affordability and economic outlook, two intertwined issues, have also made studying in Canada less attractive. Canada and the US remain large destinations, but the lead is fading. Chinese students are increasingly looking to study within Asia or European countries that are now targeting the demographic with more english-based classes.
The surge of Guinea study permits aligns with a military coup in the country the same year. The IRCC’s release of asylum claims by study permit holders shows the country is overrepresented, amounting to half the volume of students from India with a quarter of the study permits. Asylum claims made by students from Guinea in the first 9 months of 2024 were equivalent in size to 1 in 16 study permit applications received in all of 2023.
None of that is to suggest the claims are illegitimate—that’s assessed by Canada on a case-by-case basis. Since a study permit became easier to obtain than a visitor visa in many countries, it’s more common than people think and a legitimate path. However, that reinforces the narrative that studying in Canada is less about getting a high quality education and more about a fast track to immigration.