Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian GDP Growth: Fictional Rent Fuels Over $1 In $10, More Than Oil
Canada’s economy is still growing—but the quality of that growth is questionable. Over 1 in 10 dollars of real GDP growth in the past year came from imputed rents, the theoretical income homeowners earn by renting their homes to themselves. This inflation-prone, non-productive input is now a bigger contributor to GDP than major industries like oil & gas extraction, and its expanding role distorts the true picture of economic output.
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Canadian Job Vacancies Collapse To 8-Year Low, Diverging From US: BMO
Canada’s strong job numbers mask cracks forming in the labor market. The job vacancy rate fell to 2.7% in May—an 8-year low and well below pre-pandemic levels. BMO economists warn that Canadian job openings are shrinking much faster than in the US, setting the stage for heightened competition and amplified vulnerability during future downturns.
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Canadian Steel Tariffs: Weaker Demand, Higher Home Prices, Fewer Jobs
Canadian new home sales are weak—and new steel tariffs are making things worse. The tariffs are estimated to add an average of $30,000 per home, over 4% of the benchmark, limiting room for price cuts to stimulate demand. Homebuilders are one of the largest domestic steel consumers, but a weak market has already curbed demand. Tariffs intended to support the industry are likely to deepen the slump.
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Bank of Canada Holds Rates A Third Time, Cites Inflation Fears
The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its key policy rate at 2.75% for a third straight meeting, a widely anticipated decision. It defended the announcement, citing stubborn inflation and global trade uncertainty. Despite weakening domestic indicators, officials remain cautious, warning near-term inflationary pressures are sticky.
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Toronto Real Estate
Toronto New Home Sales Set Another Record Low, Prices Rise
Toronto’s new construction market just hit another low. Developers across Greater Toronto only sold 510 new homes in June, a 60% drop from last year, and 82% below the 10-year average. Inventory surged to a record 22,254 units, yet prices still rose, underscoring deep market distortions.
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