Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Mortgage Originations Rise 27%, Second Biggest Month On Record
Canadian mortgage originations hit $40.7 billion in June, up 27.5% from last year—making it the second-biggest month on record. That kind of surge would normally signal renewed housing demand, but not this time. Home sales remain weak, but a flood of pre-construction deals from the 2020-2022 investor boom are now closing, and those without cash need financing. The spike isn’t about a buyer revival, it’s a delayed bill for the last frenzy.
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Canada’s Youth Jobless Rate Fueled By Student Immigration Surge: BMO
Canada’s job market pain is hitting young adults hardest. Youth unemployment jumped to 14.6% in July, the highest since 2010 (excluding the pandemic). But this isn’t about job losses—it’s the fallout from a student immigration boom that swelled the labour supply. The problem isn’t weak demand; it’s policymakers flooding the market with more workers than it can absorb.
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Canadian Inflation Actually Accelerated—Especially Shelter, Food, BoC Measures
Canada’s headline inflation looks tame—but it’s a mirage. Annual CPI slowed to 1.7% in July, mostly due to falling gas prices skewing the data. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) core inflation measures, which strip out short-term volatility, show price growth remains stubbornly high—and in some cases accelerating. Shelter costs are especially painful, rising back to 3% year-over-year—50% above the BoC’s 2% target.
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Canadian Condo Prices Just Kicked Off A Second Wave Correction
Canadian condo prices posted a fourth straight monthly decline, marking the start of a second-leg correction. The benchmark condo fell to $490,600 in July, down 5.4% year-over-year and 14.1% below the peak. Yet only 1 in 5 households earn enough to afford these “starter homes,” limiting demand recovery potential in the short-term. This problem will compound real estate problems in the future—if households can’t afford starter homes today, they won’t be able to provide liquidity for higher segments later.
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Toronto Real Estate
Toronto’s Condo Market Is Spiraling Towards A Hard Landing
Toronto’s condo pipeline is drying up fast. New starts fell to 10,583 units in July, down 60% year-over-year, and we’re far from the bottom. RBC warns weak pre-construction sales suggest starts in the region can fall another 80% by December 2026. Efforts to revive demand are clashing with unintended consequences—policy-driven building booms have inflated construction costs, pushing prices beyond what most buyers can afford.
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