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    Real Estate

    Canadian Job Losses Reinforce Confidence Crisis, Kill Soft Landing Narrative

    homegoal.caBy homegoal.caSeptember 5, 2025No Comments3 Mins Read
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    Canada’s economy just keeps taking hits—the latest is this morning’s job report. The unemployment rate climbed sharply in August, according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. What was once a demographic issue is now a demand problem. Real job losses are materializing, and they’re not limited to trade-exposed sectors. The data points to a deeper shift: the economy isn’t just slowing—it’s contracting under falling demand and eroding confidence. 

    Canada Lost 66k Jobs, Unemployment Hits Highest Rate Since 2016  

    Canadian employment fell by 66k jobs (-0.3%) in August, after losing 41k jobs in July. The drop pushed the unemployment rate up 0.2 points to 7.1%—half of the 0.4-point increase over the past year. It’s now the highest since 2016, excluding the pandemic. 

    Canadian employment: Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. In percentage points.

    Source: Statistics Canada.

    Unemployment is also proving to be unusually sticky. Just 15.2% of those unemployed in July found work in August, well below the pre-2020 average of 23.3%. This isn’t about a skills mismatch—jobs are disappearing fast.

    Canadian Unemployment Surge No Longer Just A Population Story

    Canada’s rising unemployment was once a demographic issue—population growth outpacing job creation. In August, the working-age population grew by 29.4k (+0.1%), slower than recent months but still strong by historical standards. 

    But the labour force shrank by 31.2k (-0.1%) while the number of unemployed rose by 34.4k (+2.2%). That means unemployment is no longer rising because of population growth—it’s rising due to actual job losses. The unemployment rate increase was muted only because roughly half of those who lost jobs exited the labour force. The bigger issue? A shrinking workforce means reduced output capacity for the economy. 

    Canadian Job Losses Are Broad, Undermine Soft Landing Narrative

    Canadian employment: Employment change by industry in August 2025.

    Source: Statistics Canada. 

    The employment weakness also extends far beyond the US trade conflict. Often seen as one of the most resilient sectors, professional, scientific & technical services lost a whopping 26k jobs (-1.3%) last month. Self-employment also contracted by 43k jobs (-1.6%), the sharpest drop for an already weak but critical segment. These are employment segments that are supposed to be resilient and sticky in the face of a downturn, but they weren’t. 

    Canada’s latest job data shows this isn’t just a trade story. The losses are broad and cross-industry, pointing to collapsing demand—even as population growth remains strong. With investment fleeing and economic growth increasingly reliant on government spending, this isn’t a short-term dip. It’s a crisis of confidence. 

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