After “eclipsing” the 1990s downturn this July, Greater Toronto Area (GTA) new home sales plunged 42% year over year last month, with a mere 300 transactions recorded, according to the latest data from the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD). This put sales 81% below the ten year average, contrasting starkly with the historical average for new home sales in August, which would typically be around 1,595 units.
This continued downtrend in new home sales comes as economic uncertainty combines with a general lack of affordability, both to buy and to build new homes. And while completions are coming online in record numbers, new projects are becoming increasingly obsolete as Toronto enters its lowest level of housing starts in 30 years.
Edward Jegg, Research Manager at Altus Group, says these conditions are a harbinger of significant job loss in the region.
“GTA new home sales in August 2025 remained at rock bottom levels. New launches, in particular high-rise projects, over the past 12 months have been at a record low and at the same time, completions have reached a record high,” says Jegg. “As further projects reach completion, new home tradespeople are becoming increasingly at risk of not being able to find employment and therefore joining the growing number of Canadians without work, putting additional strain on the economy.”
In a June report by Altus Group for BILD and the Ontario Home Builders’ Association (OHBA), it was found that the lack of new housing starts in the GTA would not only result in around 41,000 jobs lost but in construction investment falling by more than $10 billion by 2029.
Looking beyond the GTA, Justin Sherwood, Senior Vice President of Communications, Research, and Stakeholder Relations at BILD, says it’s not just Toronto that’s facing a future supply shortage.
“With pre-construction inventory dropping dramatically, the signs are clear that the new residential sector in the GTA is basically stopping. Greater Vancouver is seeing a third of its normal activity and will be soon in a similar place, many other Ontario markets like Ottawa and the Kitchener-Waterloo area are struggling, and we are now seeing even some troubling signs in Calgary,” Sherwood says. “Why is the government ignoring these obvious warning signs?”
In BILD’s August report on GTA housing starts, Sherwood called on the federal government to “temporarily suspend the GST on all new homes under $1 million, for rapid implementation of provincial DC reforms, and for municipalities to lower the fees and charges they add to new homes” — actions BILD has actively advocated for for some time now.
“Forget achieving the federal government’s goal of 500,000 homes per year, over the next few years it will be a stretch to keep annual housing starts in the 200,000 range,” says Sherwood. “Due to layoffs and a drought in future housing supply, residential construction workers and hardworking families looking to find a home in the 2027-2031 period will be the ones that bear the brunt of inaction.”
Of the 300 new home sales recorded in August, 118 were condo units, down 59% from August 2024 and 90% below the 10-year average. The remainder was made up of 182 single-family home sales, down 21% from August 2024 and 59% below the 10-year average.
And while inventory inched down last month, it remains substantially elevated with sales continuing to lag. Total new home remaining inventory fell from 22,654 units in July to 22,245 units in August, made up of 16,447 condo units and 5,798 single-family homes. This puts the combined inventory level of 20 months, which according to BILD’s records is “the highest inventory level seen to date.”
On the price front, new condo prices remained at “an apparent price floor” of $1,028,782, only slightly down from July’s $1,029,527. As for single-family homes, the average new home price in the GTA was $1,462,342, down 8.5% year over year and down from $1,488,940 in July.