Toronto real estate continued to spiral to new lows last month. Greater Toronto new home sales just printed the weakest August on record, according to Altus Group data. However, the weak demand was not for a lack of inventory, which came in at the highest level in at least 10 years. The issue is no one wants a condo—the high-rise crane capital of North America is now seeing fewer condo sales than single-family homes.
Greater Toronto New Home Prices Are Down Over $400k Since Peak
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Source: Altus Group; BILD GTA.
Greater Toronto new home prices are falling sharply as speculative demand collapses. The benchmark price of a single-family home fell 1.8% (-$26,600) to $1.46 million in August, 8.5% (-$135,800) lower than the same time last year. The benchmark has dropped 24.4% (-$471,600) since reaching a record high in July 2022.
Condo apartment prices held firmer, but that stability came with a catch. Benchmark condo prices were nearly flat (-$800) at $1.03 million in August, just 0.2% (-$1,218) lower than last year. Prices are down 17.9% (-$223,700) from the record high reached in 2022.
The recent stagnation in price movement for condos is partially explained by size. Units are growing, with the average price per square foot in August down 1.3% from last year. However, the more important contributor to this stall is likely the complete lack of activity. Sales are so weak the market is effectively frozen since the demand for these units has evaporated.
Toronto New Home Sales Fall To A Record Low
Greater Toronto new home sales for August.
Source: Altus Group; BILD; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto new home sales continue to come in at record shattering lows. Only 300 new homes were reported sold in August, down 42% from last year and 81% below the 10-year average for the month. It was the worst August on record, with available data going back more than 16 years.
Breaking those sales down, single-family fell 21.2% to 182 of the new homes sold in August. The remaining 118 new homes sold were condo apartments, which fell 58.7% from last year. Yes, more single-family homes sold last month than condo apartments—which isn’t great news for demand in North America’s high-rise construction crane capital. Just 53 condos sold in the City of Toronto. Ouch.
It can’t be overstated just how dramatic this shift has been from peak demand. August sales have fallen 93% since they peaked in 2020, with single-family demand falling 90.2% by 2025. August condo apartment sales peaked a year later with 3,161 sales in 2021, and fell 96% by 2025.
Toronto New Home Inventory Climbs To A 10-Year High
Greater Toronto new home inventory for August.
Source: BILD; Altus Group; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto new home sales certainly aren’t down because of a lack of inventory. There were 22,250 new homes for sale in August, up 10.7% from last year. It was the most inventory for the month in at least 10 years, and more than double (+113%) the August low that drove the speculative condo panic in 2022. Never forget.
Greater Toronto went from a “shortage” to a glut in under three years—not because supply improved, but because speculative investors vanished. Prices have dropped sharply, but remain out of reach for most end users—highlighting how far this market has drifted from fundamentals. More project cancellations and a turbulent stretch for the local economy seem inevitable before any real recovery begins.