Toronto real estate may have to accept that its pre-pandemic premium is gone. TRREB data shows composite home prices fell further in September, with losses accelerating. A mild uptick in sales was overshadowed by inventory surging to a record high. The demand balance is weaker than during the 90s crash, the region’s last major correction.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Down 25%, Recent Losses Widening
Greater Toronto real estate prices: CREA composite benchmark.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto real estate prices fell again in September, extending recent losses. The benchmark price dropped 0.7% (-$6,700) to $963,000—down 5.5% (-$55,128) from last year. Prices have plunged 24.9% (-$318,900) since the February 2022 peak, marking the lowest level since January 2021. Annual losses also deepened from the prior month, suggesting declines are accelerating—not easing. Even with this bearish run, the chart above shows prices remain elevated relative to historic norms.
Toronto Real Estate Sales Improve Slightly, Remain Historically Weak
Greater Toronto real estate sales (MLS).
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Greater Toronto real estate sales were higher, but it would be generous to frame this as an improvement. September saw just 5,592 home sales across TRREB, 8.5% higher than last year and the first annual increase for September since 2020. However, it was still the fourth weakest September in the past 20 years—27.4% below the month’s 10-year average, and 32.3% below 2019. Not even during Canada’s record population growth in 2022 did sales see a significant uptick, indicating pre- and post-pandemic Toronto are two very different regions.
Toronto Real Estate Has Never Seen More Inventory
Active listings for Greater Toronto real estate on the MLS.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Weak demand for Greater Toronto real estate certainly wasn’t due to a lack of inventory. The region recorded a staggering 19,260 new listings in September, up 3.9% from last year. It was 16.0% higher than the month’s 10-year average, and 16.2% above 2019 levels. In fact, it was the second-biggest September on record—only behind 2020, when the multi-year inventory flood kicked off.
New listings pushed Greater Toronto’s typically scarce inventory to a record high. Active listings hit 29,394 in September, up 18.9% from last year. That’s 80.4% above the month’s 10-year average and 78.1% higher than 2019. Inventory on the MLS has never been higher—11% above the peak of the 90s downturn, the region’s last major correction.
The demand balance isn’t on the side of sellers. The sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR), a key industry metric, fell to just 29% in September—a level where prices typically decline. Before 2022, the September SNLR had never been this low. Even in 1995, it was 81% higher.
Greater Toronto real estate sales improved—but that was about it. A modest gain was overshadowed by deeper price declines, surging inventory, and a demand balance deep in bearish territory. While policy debate focuses on weak demand, most other provinces are seeing prices near new highs. It may be time to accept that post-pandemic Toronto real estate no longer commands the premium it once did.