New condominium sales in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) have fallen to their lowest level in 35 years, while project cancellations have already reached a record high, according to a new report from Urbanation Inc.
In its Q3-2025 Condominium Market Survey, released Thursday, the market research and analysis firm reported just 319 new condo apartments were sold in the third quarter of 2025, down 54 per cent from a year earlier and 92 per cent below the 10-year average for the period. It was the weakest third quarter since 1990.
Weak demand crushes new projects
Developers have pulled back sharply. Ten projects with a total of 2,499 units were cancelled during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to 18 projects and 4,040 units.
That already surpasses the previous record set in 2018, when 15 projects with 3,598 units were cancelled.
Since the start of 2024, 32 projects totalling nearly 7,000 units have been scrapped, with another 20 now on hold or in receivership, according to the report.
“The condo market has clearly become depressed as it undergoes a difficult correction following excessive growth that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation. “However, the lack of activity occurring today will surely lead to a lack of supply in a couple years, helping to restart the engine for the market.”
Only two new projects started in Q3
In the third quarter, only two projects totalling 614 units started construction, a 77 per cent decline from a year earlier and 88 per cent below the 10-year average. Year-to-date starts of 2,176 units represented a 28-year low.
At 59,204 units, the total number of condos under construction fell to its lowest level since Q4 2017, dropping 43 per cent from the record high reached three years ago in 2022 at 104,617 units.
Unsold new units surge 142%
Overall unsold inventory across all stages of development edged down two per cent to 22,602 units, reflecting fewer new launches and cancellations.
However, unsold units in completed projects increased 142 per cent from a year ago to a record high 2,944 units. This figure doesn’t include all units that were pre-sold but ultimately failed to close.
Impact on prices
Prices have eased but remain elevated compared with resale, reads the report. Developer-owned unsold condos averaged $1,199 per square foot in the third quarter, down 3.5 per cent from last year. Newly completed resale units averaged $867, while unsold pre-construction units averaged $1,315.