If you’ve been watching the Toronto market from the sidelines, waiting for the right moment to trade up to a bigger or better home, you’ve probably noticed that prices are down and inventory is up. Great news, right?
Well, yes. And also no.
When you’re upsizing, you’re not just a buyer. You’re a seller too. And selling in this market requires a different playbook than it did two or three years ago.
The good news? If you’re strategic, 2026 might actually be your best window to make a move. Here’s what you need to know before you do:
Why 2026 Is Different for Upsizers
Let’s start with the headlines. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Market Watch for January 2026, the GTA average selling price came in at $973,289 – down 6.5% from January 2025. Sales were down 19.3%, new listings dropped 13.3%, and the benchmark price fell 8% year-over-year.
In plain English: fewer people are buying, prices are lower, and there’s more choice out there than there’s been in years.
If you’re a buyer who’s just buying, that’s like Christmas morning. But for upsizers, the opportunity is more nuanced. Yes, the home you want to buy is probably cheaper than it was a year or two ago. But so is the home you need to sell. The question isn’t whether prices are down…it’s whether the math works in your favour when you’re on both sides of the transaction.
When you’re moving up, a declining market actually works to your advantage. A 6.5% drop on a $650,000 condo costs you about $42,000 on your sale. But that same 6.5% drop on a $1.5 million detached house saves you roughly $97,000 on your purchase. The more expensive the home you’re buying, the more you benefit from the correction. The gap between what you lose on the sell side and what you save on the buy side is real money, and right now, it’s tilting in the upsizer’s favour.
The Upsizer Math: What It Costs to Move Up Right Now
Let’s look at the actual numbers. Here’s what each major home type is averaging in the City of Toronto (416) and the broader GTA (905), according to TRREB data:
If you’re a condo owner in the 416 looking to move into a semi-detached home, you’re looking at a price gap of roughly $514,000 (assuming you’re buying and selling an average-priced home). Want a detached house? That gap jumps to about $910,000. Moving from a townhouse to a detached in the city? About $665,000.
These are big numbers. But they’re smaller than they were at the peak and in a market where sellers are negotiating (homes sold for an average of 97% of asking in 2025), there’s room to tighten that gap further on the buy side.
If you’re considering a neighbourhood change — say, moving from a Toronto condo to a detached home in the 905 — the math shifts dramatically. The gap between a 416 condo ($631,932) and a 905 detached ($1,205,859) is about $574,000. Still significant, but a very different conversation than trying to stay in the city.
Buy First or Sell First in This Market?
This is always the biggest question for upsizers, and the answer in 2026 is more situation-specific than ever. (For the full breakdown, read our guide to Should You Buy or Sell First?)
Here’s the short version for right now:
If you own a condo, selling first is probably the safer play. The condo market has been hit hardest, with prices dropping 7.3% across the GTA in 2025, and inventory remaining elevated. Selling first gives you certainty on your numbers before you commit to a purchase, and with more inventory available on the buy side, you’ll have options when you’re ready to move.
If you own a house or townhouse in a desirable area, you may have more flexibility to buy first. Freehold properties, particularly in established neighbourhoods, are still moving, and if you find the right home at the right price, you don’t want to lose it while waiting for your current place to sell. But be conservative with your price estimates and involve your listing REALTOR in any decisions.
Regardless of what you own, talk to your lender about your options before you do anything. Understand what you qualify for, whether you can port your mortgage (and whether you should), and what bridge financing would cost if your closing dates don’t line up. The Bank of Canada overnight rate is sitting at 2.25% and the prime rate is at 4.5%, better than the peak, but mortgage planning is still critical.
Where Upsizers Have Leverage (and Where They Don’t)
The leverage story in 2026 is a split screen.
On the buy side, you may have real negotiating power. If a home isn’t priced for/receiving multiple offers, we’re regularly seeing home inspection and financing conditions Sellers are more willing to negotiate on price, closing dates, and inclusions than they’ve been in years. Days on market stretched to 65 in 2025, which means many sellers are motivated. Use that.
On the sell side, you need to earn your price. With 10,774 new listings hitting the market in January alone, your home is competing for attention. The days of throwing a sign on the lawn and waiting for multiple offers are, for most properties, behind us. Preparation matters more than ever — staging, pricing strategy, and marketing are the difference between a home that sells in two weeks and one that lingers for two months. (If you want to get a head start, read our 30-Day Guide to Selling Your Home.)
The upsizers who do well in this market are the ones who take the sell side just as seriously as the buy side. Most people get excited about the house they’re buying and treat the sale of their current home as an afterthought. In 2026, that’s a costly mistake.
The BREL Bottom Line
2026 is a window for upsizers, not because the market is “hot” or “cold,” but because the math of moving up actually favours you when prices are down. You lose less on your sale than you save on your purchase, and you’re buying into a market with more choice, less competition, and real negotiating power.
But windows don’t stay open forever. The pent-up demand from buyers who’ve been waiting on the sidelines is real, and when confidence returns, the leverage you have today will shrink.
If you’re thinking about making a move, now is the time to get your ducks in a row:
- Get pre-approved and understand your full financial picture, not just the purchase, but the costs of selling, moving, and carrying a potentially more expensive home.
- Start preparing your current home for sale. Even if you’re months away from listing, the work you do now will pay off. Read our 30-Day Prep Guide to get started.
- Read our full Move-Up Buyer Guide for a deeper dive into the entire process, from defining your needs to choosing the right REALTOR.
- Talk to the BREL team. We’ve helped hundreds of upsizers navigate buying and selling simultaneously, and we know how to succeed in this market.