Canadians are packing up for greener pastures, and that doesn’t mean Toronto to Calgary. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data for Q3 2024 shows a sharp uptick for emigration, the process of residents leaving to settle permanently in another country. The third quarter is typically big, but this one was one of the largest in years. In fact, the quarterly outflow is the 5th largest since Canada formalized its immigration system back in 1967.
What Is Emigration?
Today we’re looking at Canada’s emigration outflows. Emigrants are the reverse of immigrants—Canadians that are leaving to settle somewhere else permanently.
Policymakers typically ignore this number in favor of net emigration, which is the balance of flow. We call this the human capital livestock approach—it doesn’t matter what the person does or why they’re leaving, they just want more than less. This is problematic for a lot of reasons, but the biggest is the fact they’re not worried about retention.
A sustained increase can be related to an erosion in quality of life. Those returning aren’t necessarily at the same part of their career or contribute differently to the economy—losing a prime aged worker and gaining a retiree isn’t quite the same.
Those returning may also remember the country differently, and not know the factors driving people away. That may result in those same people leaving at a later date. Failing to figure out why people are leaving, or at a faster rate, can result in ignoring damage that may become irreparable by the time it’s addressed. Risk happens fast.
There’s also the issue that we now understand that Canada doesn’t have comprehensive exit data. The country doesn’t consider people have left until they formally declare their absence, resulting in overestimating the immigrants that stayed by roughly 1 in 6 people for at least 30 years. Net flows are of little consolation if they underestimate the outflows.
Canadians Are Fleeing At One Of The Fastest Rates On Record
Canadian emigration had been on a steady climb over the past few years. The volume saw quarterly growth of 11.1% to 29,100 people in Q3 2024. That’s 3% higher than last year, with Q3 typically the biggest quarter of the year.
Even for the third quarter, this volume was unusually large. It marks the largest volume since Q3 2019, seemingly picking up from where it left off. Outside of 2016 to 2019, Canada hasn’t seen more Q3 emigrants since 1967. In other words, it was the fifth largest 3rd quarter for Canadians to flee the country since the country introduced Immigration Regulations. Those regulations banned immigration based on race and introduced a points system to prefer those who presented higher quantifiable skills and values to the country.
In short, the recent trend is an outlier that Canada hasn’t seen in a friggin’ long time.