Recent reports indicate that the Toronto housing market continues to face issues, with key metrics pointing to a marked slowdown in home sales and pricing trends. Data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) shows that home sales in February 2025 dropped compared to the same month last year, while the Home Price Index (HPI) also fell.
Impact of Weather
While economic uncertainty, including concerns over tariffs and broader market sentiment, has contributed to the downturn, severe winter weather, as noted in a March Edge Realty Analytics report, has also played a role. The report highlights that the winter months, typically low in transaction volume, were further affected by extreme conditions. February 2025 saw 12 days with over a foot of snow on the ground; February 2024 recorded no such days. In addition, data from Toronto Weather Stats shows that total snowfall in February reached 78.2 cm, compared to 25.2 cm in January. These unusually heavy snowfall events can impact home sales searches.
Sales
In February, seasonally adjusted home sales across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) experienced a substantial decline. Data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) shows that 4,037 home sales were recorded, for a decrease of 27.4% compared to February of the previous year. This drop was one of the most significant since the financial crisis.
Listings and Inventory
Seasonally adjusted new listings fell by 21.4% from January to February. However, it is important to note that a revision in January’s data resulted in new listings being approximately 6% higher than those recorded in the previous February, according to the March Edge Realty report. This divergence has led to a drop in the sales-to-new listings ratio to around 30%, which indicates that buyers currently have increased negotiating power.
Inventory levels are on the rise, with active listings reaching their highest for this time of year since 2009. Notably, detached homes in some regions experienced an inventory increase of 117% year-over-year.
Price
The Home Price Index (HPI) declined by 1.5% in February, leading to an average selling price of $1,084,547. These adjustments reflect the pressure that the slowdown in transactions and the relative surplus of listings are placing on prices. Additionally, the Edge Realty March report noted revisions to the previously reported Home Price Index (HPI), showing declines in December and January that align more closely with current market conditions.
Condo Construction and Supply
The market for condominium units is showing signs of strain. Construction activity experienced a slight decline in January, with condo construction particularly affected. Only 101 new condo units were sold in January, marking the lowest figure on record since 2004. Over the past 12 months, total condo sales have reached just 4,000, which may indicate a potential supply shortage for condos in the coming years, particularly around 2027