Maybe next year? Canadian renters are hitting pause on their plans to buy a home in the next 12 months, according to a Bank of Canada (BoC) consumer survey in Q1 2025. Following a quarter of record buying intentions, the share looking to buy this year made the sharpest quarterly decline on record. The combination of a federal election while engaged in trade wars with the world’s two largest economies, has created economic uncertainty likely to worsen before it improves.
Canadian Renters Abandon Plans To Buy A Home This Year
The share of Canadian renters who plan to purchase a home within the next 12 months.
Source: Bank of Canada.
The share of renters looking to buy a home within the next 12 months plunged last quarter. The share fell to 16.1% of renters in Q1 2025, down 9.9 points from the record high just a quarter prior. The share is about 2.3 points lower than this time last year, and represents the smallest share in two years.
Canadian Home Buying Intentions Collapsed At A Record Pace
The speed at which sentiment collapsed is taking a moment to consider. Shedding 9.9 points made it the sharpest quarterly drop since they began tracking the index. Without a sudden shift in sentiment this quarter, it’s on track to beat the sharp erosion from Q2 to Q4 2022.
Home Buying Sentiment Will Recover Fast, But It’ll Get Worse First
The collapse of buying intentions in 2022 was entirely due to a lack of affordability. It started with home prices hitting an all-time high in Q1, followed with interest rates climbing at the fastest pace in over a generation. The recovery was almost as fast, with buying intentions returning after home prices fell—improving even further as interest rates were slashed.
A quick recovery demonstrates that home buying intentions can bounce quickly if the environment is right. Lower rates and home prices are still making progress, which has made buying more attractive recently, but these valuations are still rich. The anxiety over economic uncertainty will also likely worsen before it gets better.
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