The Calgary housing market, while still demonstrating strength, is showing clear indicators of a shift from the rapid growth experienced in recent years to a more balanced state. This transition is marked by increased construction activity, rising inventory, and a divergence in performance compared to other major Alberta markets like Edmonton.
One of the primary drivers of this shift is the increase in housing supply. Reports from late 2024 and early 2025 consistently highlight a surge in new listings, particularly in the condo segment. A November report by Edge Realty Analytics noted a strong flow of new listings, rising 22% year-over-year, with condos experiencing an even more significant increase of 30%. This trend continues into January 2025, with new listings up 35% year-over-year. Total active listings are at four-year highs after surging 70% year-over-year in January and are now only slightly below the long-term average.
Driving the increase in supply is construction activity. While dwellings under construction continue to rise overall, a closer look reveals a critical distinction. When purpose-built rentals are excluded, the number of “homeowner” dwellings under construction in Calgary is at its highest level since 2007. This metric is important because it focuses on the potential resale inventory that will enter the market as these projects are completed.
The rise in supply has a direct impact on market dynamics. The sales-to-new listings ratio, a key indicator of market balance, has ticked down in Calgary. While a ratio of 62% in late 2024 still indicated a seller’s market, it is a move away from the higher ratios seen in previous years. By January 2025, this ratio slipped below 60% for the first time since 2020. This gradual shift suggests that Calgary is trending towards more balanced conditions, where buyers have increased negotiating power.
Despite these shifts, the Calgary market remains relatively robust. In November 2024, sales saw a 9% increase month-over-month, although the year-over-year increase was a more modest 1%. Prices have been relatively stable, with Edge Realty reports noting that prices remained flat for the two months leading up to November 2024, the first time this had happened since 2022. House prices were up 4.3% year-over-year in January 2025.
Furthermore, monthly mortgage payments on new purchases are trending lower and remain below the national average, contributing to relative affordability. This suggests a market that is moderating rather than declining, with ongoing demand supported by reasonable affordability.
Looking ahead, Calgary is likely to see a continued increase in resale inventory as new supply completes, further contributing to the normalization of the market. While the long-term forecast suggests that Calgary will again trade at a premium, according to Edge Realty, this is a longer-term view, with more immediate trends indicating a move towards a more balanced market.