Falling interest rates, flattening prices and increased household income made housing more affordable for Canadians from the end of 2023 to the middle of this year.
However, the bulk of the affordability gains appear to be “rearview mirror,” according to a new report by RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue.
“Further advancement becomes more challenging once interest rates reach a stable plateau as it depends exclusively on home price movements and household income trends,” reads the report. “Substantial price declines or robust increasing income would be necessary to drive more meaningful gains.”
Hogue anticipates broadly stable pricing across Canada over the next two years, with some regional variations and moderate wage increases.
Purchasing power threatened
Worsening labour market conditions are beginning to weigh on household finances, undermining a key source of support for homebuyers, reads the report. Slowing wage growth threatens to erode purchasing power just as housing markets in several regions show tentative signs of stabilizing.
Over the past 18 months, stronger household incomes have been instrumental in improving affordability. Rising earnings account for more than one-third of the recent drop in RBC’s national aggregate affordability measure, signaling improved conditions for buyers. This offset the impact of stubbornly high prices and elevated borrowing costs.
That buffer is now fading, according to Hogue. Employment has weakened, and with it the pace of income growth.
Ontario markets appear especially vulnerable. The province’s jobless rate has climbed well above pre-pandemic levels, ranking among the highest in Canada. Compounding the challenge, the ongoing trade war continues to pressure Ontario’s manufacturing base, with ripple effects across related sectors and service industries.
The report says Vancouver has the worst affordability conditions in the country.
“Property transactions remain suppressed despite modest summer gains, underscoring persistent affordability burdens. More declines in value are expected with elevated inventory and supply and demand conditions favouring buyers.”
Meanwhile, affordability has improved substantially in Calgary, where construction is robust and new supply and sky-high inventory levels are giving buyers lots of options.
Poor affordability and weakening job prospects weigh heavily on the Toronto market, challenging buyers and sellers, reads the report. Ownership cost pressures have eased noticeably in the past year, particularly for condominiums, “but the progress is not enough to fully unlock pent-up demand,” it says.
