The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recently published its January 2025 housing start data, offering detailed insights into the market. Nationally, housing starts are showing a steady trend; however, urban centres are displaying different dynamics. In cities, especially in the multi-unit residential sector, there has been a stronger performance—reflecting a significant boost in purpose-built rental projects. This divergence between overall national activity and urban-specific trends highlights the evolving demand patterns in densely populated areas.
National Trends and Moving Averages
The data shows that the six‐month trend measure for housing starts, calculated as a moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), declined by 2.5% in January to sit at 236,892 units. In contrast, the total monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada actually increased by 3%, rising to 239,739 units from December’s 232,492 units.
Urban Versus Rural Dynamics
Breaking down the numbers further, actual housing starts in urban centres—defined as areas with a population of 10,000 or greater—registered a notable 7% year-over-year increase. In January 2025, urban areas saw 15,930 housing starts compared to 14,883 in January 2024. This uptick in urban construction can be significant, as these areas tend to attract the attention of government policy and market forecasts due to higher density and a greater need for varied housing options.
The report also highlights that the monthly SAAR for urban centres reached 220,643 units in January, a 3% increase from December’s 215,052 units. Rural areas, meanwhile, maintained a more modest pace with an estimated SAAR of 19,096 units. This urban-rural split is reflective of broader trends where metropolitan areas continue to drive the majority of new housing supply, particularly through the construction of multi-unit residential buildings.
Regional Variations: Three Key Municipalities
Variations among three of the largest cities show distinct regional trends.
Montreal emerged as a leader, posting a remarkable 112% year-over-year increase in actual housing starts in January. This surge was largely driven by a significant uptick in multi-unit projects, which are increasingly seen as essential to meet the demands of a growing urban population.
Vancouver also experienced positive momentum, with a 37% increase in housing starts, again fueled by higher activity in multi-unit construction.
On the other hand, Toronto witnessed a sharp decline, with housing starts falling 41% compared to January 2024. The downturn in Toronto was primarily due to decreases in multi-unit projects.
Multi-Unit Developments
Multi-unit housing has been a critical driver of the overall increase in urban construction. According to CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist, Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, an 8% rise in multi-unit starts, particularly in purpose-built rental developments concentrated in Quebec and British Columbia, was a key contributor to the monthly SAAR increase.
Economic Outlook
Bourassa-Ochoa also cautioned that foreign trade risks pose a significant source of uncertainty for future housing construction. In the agency’s recently released Housing Market Outlook, CMHC also projected a slowdown in housing starts from 2025 to 2027, primarily due to anticipated decreases in condominium apartment starts.