Canadian real estate sellers all had the same brilliant idea last month: list before inventory surges. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows September sales hit a multi-year high, but the volume remained tepid—especially in contrast to the record flood of new listings. Market balance is now the weakest since the ’90s real estate crash, helping push prices even lower.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Continue To Fall As Listings Soar
Canadian Real Estate Prices: The price of a typical home across Canada.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Canadian home prices continue to slide, hitting another multi-year low. The typical home fell 0.6% (-$4,200) to $682,600 in September, down 3.4% (-$24,200) from last year. Prices have dropped 19.8% (-$169,000) since the 2022 peak, erasing more than three years of gains. Most of the decline continues to be concentrated in Ontario, while frothy markets like Halifax are seeing condo prices close the gap with Toronto.
Canadian Real Estate Sales Improve But Remain Far From Normal
Canadian real estate sales for the month of September.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Canadian real estate sales are improving, but they still have a long way to go before normalization. There were 39,700 sales reported in September, up 5.25% from last year. This marks a 4-year high for the month but those years have been exceptionally slow. Last month was a mind boggling 35.4% below the month’s record high in 2020, and 6.5% below the 10-year average. Sales have been creeping higher, but they’re not even back to 2019-levels (-5.7%).
Canadian Real Estate Sellers Flood The Market, Set New Listings Record
Canadian real estate new listings for the month of September.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Last month’s mild improvement in sales came alongside a crushing rise in inventory. There were 91,969 new listings in September, up 8% from last year and 20.1% above the 10-year average. The sudden flood of sellers established a new record high for the month.
The narrative of improving demand looks less optimistic in the context of inventory. September’s modest gain was dwarfed by record new listings, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) down to 43%—the lowest for the month since 1995. It marks the weakest September demand balance in more than a generation—and the weakest since the last major Canadian real estate crash.