Canada’s economic outlook presents mixed signals, with strong headline job growth and rising hours worked contrasted by slowing wage gains, significant job growth among older workers, and persistent credit stress among households. December’s stronger-than-expected employment gains have prompted some to reassess the trajectory of the Bank of Canada’s rate policy; however, concerns about inflation and elevated debt levels persist.
Employment Numbers
December saw a significant 91,000 jobs added—the strongest monthly increase in two years and far exceeding expectations of 25,000. Gains were evident across key rate-sensitive sectors, including construction, manufacturing, and finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE). Additionally, hours worked rose by 0.5% month-over-month, signalling some productivity improvements, and the unemployment rate edged down slightly.
Source: Stats Canada
According to a recent report from Edge Realty Analytics, Canada’s stronger-than-expected December employment numbers may influence market rate expectations.
However, a closer look at December’s labour force statistics reveals underlying trends that may add complexity and temper positive impressions. According to Edge Realty Analytics, two-thirds of the job growth occurred among workers over the age of 55, raising questions about labour market dynamics within the core working-age population. Self-employment also saw a notable rise, accounting for 23,000 of the new positions. Wage growth decelerated to 3.7% year-over-year in December, the lowest since April 2022, and seasonally adjusted fourth-quarter wages rose just 0.3%, the slowest quarterly pace since late 2020. Further complicating the picture, hours worked for the fourth quarter increased a mere 0.1% annualized, signalling limited momentum in underlying productivity growth despite the robust employment figures.
The Bank of Canada revealed that the share of households behind on at least one credit product is now the highest it has been since the second quarter of 2020.
What’s more concerning is that this data doesn’t yet reflect the full impact of the ongoing rate renewal cycle. According to recent data from the Bank of Canada, which outlines renewal schedules up to 2027, nearly half of borrowers have yet to feel the effects of higher interest rates.
Adding to the complexity, the bond market, which is closely tied to fixed mortgage rates has had shifts with Bellwether 5-year bond yields reaching 3.3%. As a result, while recent substantial cuts have reduced variable rates, fixed mortgage rates have remained virtually unchanged since September, despite 100 basis points in rate reductions during that period.
Because fixed mortgage rates were already significantly lower than variable rates, the most competitive mortgage rates currently available have not declined over the past four months. For many borrowers renewing their fixed-rate mortgages this year or next, this could translate into monthly payment increases of approximately 35%.
The Edge Realty report indicates that markets are anticipating a terminal policy rate of 2.5% by October, but it suggests that, based on current data, it appears likely that rates will need to gradually decline further. It predicts a steady series of smaller reductions, potentially bringing the policy rate down to around 2%.
