A lot has changed since January, when the Calgary Real Estate Board was forecasting 2025 sales for the region would be 20% higher than the long-term trend.
In its spring report released on Monday, CREB lowered its projections for the remainder of the year, accounting for the elevated economic uncertainty brought on by rising tariffs.
At the start of the year, CREB forecasted sales of 26,000 units this year. In the new report, 2025 sales are forecast to be closer to 23,000.
“Sales in Calgary were forecasted to ease slightly in 2025. However, the heightened uncertainty throughout the spring months is expected to result in a higher-than-expected decline in annual sales,” reads the report.
“While sales are not expected to ease to the lower levels reported during the 2015-2020 period, sales are expected to slow to levels more consistent with long-term trends.”
In the City of Calgary, sales of detached and semi-detached houses are down 12 per cent year-to-date compared to 2024, according to the report.
What about prices?
In January, CREB predicted that price growth would slow to an annual gain of three per cent in 2025, after prices soared the prior three years.
Prices are now expected to stay about the same as 2024. CREB expects to see the biggest growth in semi-detached (two per cent) followed by detached (one per cent). CREB expects to see declines of one and two per cent in rowhouses and apartments.
“Easing sales combined with rising inventory are expected to support more balanced conditions in our housing market, a significant change from the extreme seller’s market conditions experienced over the past two years,” reads the report. “This will take much of the pressure off home prices, which are expected to be relatively stable this year, compared to the modest growth that was previously expected.”
The benchmark price in Calgary dipped to $589,900 in May, slightly lower than April and two per cent below May 2024 levels.
Inventory rising to “normal” levels
CREB says record-high housing starts over the past few years have consistently added supply to the market. Most of this supply is higher density, and targeted to the rental market.
“Nonetheless, as these units are completed, the additional supply choice for renters, potential owners, and existing homeowners is causing supply to rise in the resale market,” reads the report.
“However, like sales, the inventory gains need perspective. While inventory has doubled over last year’s levels, they are rising from near record lows, and inventory levels are returning to normal levels.”
Courtney Zwicker is a digital reporter and associate editor for REM. Based in Atlantic Canada, she has over a decade of experience covering daily business news.