National sales are rising, prices are stabilizing, and supply is tightening, but September’s anticipated wave of new listings could shift the balance, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
Canadian home sales built momentum in July, marking the fourth straight month of increases and the clearest sign yet that the post-inflation recovery is taking shape. Sales rose 3.8% from June and have climbed 11.2% since March.
While activity remains below long-term seasonal trends, the steady upward swing points to renewed buyer confidence after a long stretch of hesitation.
“With sales posting a fourth consecutive increase in July, and almost 4% at that, the long-anticipated post-inflation crisis pickup in housing seems to have finally arrived,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “Looking ahead a little bit, it will be interesting to see how buyers react to the burst of new supply that typically shows up in the first half of September.”
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) was the primary driver of July’s national sales increase, with transactions surging 35.5% since March, even as volumes remain historically low.
After months of muted activity, sales growth is gaining consistency, a signal that buyer confidence may be returning ahead of the fall market.
Buyers Face a Tighter Market
The July data shows conditions shifting toward sellers. The national sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 52%, up from 50.1% in June, putting it squarely in the balanced range of 45% to 65%. Months of inventory (the time it would take to sell all current listings at the present sales pace) dropped to 4.4 months, below the long-term average of five months. This places the market well off buyer’s market territory, which is typically above 6.4 months, and moving closer to a seller’s market, defined as below 3.6 months.
Year over year, there was a 10.1% increase in new listings, leaving 202,500 homes for sale nationally. However, with increased sales, competition is intensifying in some regions. Overall, supply levels are no longer tilting in buyers’ favor. If inventory continues to tighten, the balance could shift toward sellers sooner than expected.
Prices Hold Steady After Early-Year Declines
After slipping in the first quarter, prices have now stabilized for three straight months. The National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was unchanged between June and July, while the national average sale price hit $672,784, up 0.6% year-over-year. The HPI fell 3.4% from July 2024, but the decline is smaller than June’s, suggesting the steepest price corrections may be behind us.
More affordable cities led in annual price gains: Saguenay CMA jumped 22.8%, Quebec CMA rose 15.4%, Thunder Bay gained 13.5%, Trois Rivières CMA climbed 9.3%, and Montreal CMA was up 7.2%.
Higher-priced markets, however, continued to slide, with Greater Toronto down 5.0%, Greater Vancouver down 3.6%, and Kitchener-Waterloo down 4.5%. Throughout the country, price stability is taking hold in many markets, but performance remains sharply divided between affordable and high-cost regions.
Benchmark Prices: A Mixed July
July’s benchmark price trends underscore a market still in transition, with gains concentrated in more affordable regions while higher-priced urban centres continue to face downward pressure.
Last month, the biggest price gains were seen in Quebec CMA, which rose 1.97% to $429,000, followed by Saskatoon, up 0.55% to $435,100, and Victoria, which edged 0.33% higher to $894,600. The steepest declines came in Edmonton, down 2.82% to $420,900, Hamilton–Burlington, which fell 1.62% to $763,700, and Barrie District, which dropped 1.51% to $751,700.
Sales Surge in Affordable and Mid-Sized Markets
This summer, buyers were gravitating toward markets that offer both affordability and available inventory, fueling some of the strongest sales growth in the country. Several markets posted double-digit year-over-year sales gains in July, showing that buyer activity is especially strong in regions with a balance of affordability and supply. London & St. Thomas led the way with a 27.4% increase in sales from last July, followed by Niagara Region (+21.5%), Hamilton–Burlington (+21.4%), Thunder Bay (+19.4%), and Saint John (+19.0%). Saskatoon climbed 16.6%, Trois Rivières CMA rose 15.5%, and Saguenay CMA was up 12.9%.
All Eyes on September
Historically, the first half of September sees a burst of new listings, something Cathcart warns could reshape the current balance. Similarly, CREA Chair Valérie Paquin noted that activity is already picking up during what is typically a slower summer stretch, emphasizing that 2025 has been far from a normal year. For buyers, the fall could mean more choice but also more competition if demand remains strong. For sellers, the mix of rising sales, tightening inventory, and still-limited supply presents a window of opportunity, especially for those who list before September’s wave of competition.
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