The ultra-luxury market for properties in the Greater Toronto Area priced over $ 10-million stood out as one of the country’s rare bright spots in an otherwise subdued first quarter of 2025, according to a new report from Sotheby’s Canada.
Between January and March 2025, five properties sold for more than $10-million on MLS, compared to none during the same quarter in 2024. While overall GTA sales of homes over $4-million declined by 15 per cent and $1-million-plus sales dropped 29 per cent, the top end of the market remained relatively active despite broader economic turbulence.
Four of these eight-figure transactions happened in the City of Toronto. Industry experts point to high demand for bespoke, move-in-ready homes in affluent neighbourhoods such as Rosedale, Forest Hill and Cabbagetown, where inventory remains limited. Off-market deals are also on the rise, as sellers prioritize discretion and buyers seek exclusivity.
Sotheby’s President Effi Barak notes, “Toronto’s ultra-luxury single-family home market, particularly in its most prestigious neighbourhoods, remains poised for activity,” adds Barak. “While buyers are increasingly selective—negotiating assertively and prepared to wait for the ‘perfect’ home—there is underlying strength in this segment.”
Calgary’s growth cushions economic shocks
Calgary remains well-positioned in 2025 following a record-setting 2024. Alberta recorded more than 28,000 new residents in the first quarter of this year compared to the final quarter of 2024, according to Statistics Canada—the largest net gain of population of Canada’s provinces and territories. Sotheby’s says this population influx supported demand in the city’s top-tier real estate market, helping to steady performance amid broader national uncertainty.
Sales of homes over $1-million rose 2 per cent year-over-year, led by strong demand for single-family homes, which made up 80 per cent of transactions. Attached homes also saw a 25 per cent increase, as downsizers and first-time luxury buyers sought attainable options. While there was only one transaction above $4-million, down from two in the same period last year, and none above $10-million, Calgary’s market stability stands out in contrast to more heavily impacted cities.
That said, buyer sentiment is beginning to temper. Overall residential sales fell 17 per cent year-over-year in Q1, and inventory doubled compared to March 2024. Even so, Sotheby’s says low supply in key luxury neighbourhoods has helped maintain seller’s market conditions in the $1-million-plus bracket.
Montreal defies the national downturn
Montreal bucked the national trend with an 11 per cent increase in luxury home sales over $1-million in the first quarter. Lower interest rates unlocked pent-up demand and upward mobility, particularly for local buyers.
Between January and March, eight properties sold for more than $4-million—unchanged from the same time last year. No homes crossed the $10-million threshold, and while the overall market was steady, activity in the highest condo price tiers declined. There were no condominium sales over $4-million, compared to two during the same period last year.
The condo market nonetheless saw notable gains in the $1-million to $4-million segment, with sales climbing 27 per cent year-over-year—the highest annual percentage increase in top-tier condominium sales among Canada’s major metropolitan markets. Strong inventory in prime locations and a wave of motivated local buyers helped propel this segment forward.
“Montreal has exceeded expectations this spring, standing out across luxury condominiums, attached, and single-family home sales,” says Barak. “The recent easing of interest rates has unlocked upward mobility for sidelined buyers and reinforced Montreal’s momentum.”
Vancouver cools under pressure
Vancouver’s luxury housing market began 2025 on an optimistic note, but that faded quickly under the weight of U.S. tariffs, a faltering economy and regulatory hurdles. Sales over $4-million fell 48 per cent year-over-year in Q1, with no properties selling for over $10-million, mirroring last year’s slow start.
Buyers’ market conditions deepened across all luxury segments. Sales of $1-million-plus condos dropped 27 per cent, while attached home sales fell 28 per cent. Listings surged 38 per cent compared to March 2024, adding pressure on sellers to compete on price and quality.
While Vancouver’s luxury housing market may offer long-term potential, it remains firmly in buyers’ territory this spring, according to Sotheby’s.
The city’s single-family homes weren’t spared: $1-million-plus sales fell 34 per cent, and $4-million-plus transactions dropped 47 per cent.
“Those willing to navigate short-term volatility are well-positioned,” said Barak. “This market offers strong long-term potential, especially in segments facing future supply constraints.”
