The British Columbia Real Estate Association has unveiled its latest housing forecast, highlighting a cautious outlook for the province’s real estate market amid ongoing economic uncertainties tied to international trade tensions.
In its second-quarter report, the provincial association predicts that home sales across B.C. will drop slightly by 1.1 per cent this year, totalling approximately 73,650 units. However, BCREA expects a rebound, with sales projected to increase by 8.8 per cent.
“Hopes for a return to normalcy in the B.C. housing market were swiftly dashed this year, upended by a pointless and mutually destructive trade war,” says BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While there is significant pent-up demand in the market, uncertainty about the direction of the economy is holding that demand back.”
Inventory levels continue to climb
Despite recent drops in interest rates— with the Bank of Canada cutting its overnight rate from 5 per cent down to 2.75 per cent in the past year—BCREA notes that market confidence remains shaky.
Inventory levels continue to climb, with resale listings expected to average over 40,000 units provincially for the first time in more than a decade. The uptick in available homes, combined with a surplus of unsold new builds, might place mild downward pressure on prices in certain markets, BCREA notes. But average prices across the province are largely anticipated to remain steady as sellers adopt a cautious approach, choosing to wait out current economic conditions.
Regionally, the picture varies:
- The Vancouver Island-Coast area is anticipated to see mixed performance, with sales slightly increasing in Victoria but declining elsewhere on the island.
- The Lower Mainland, including Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, continues to grapple with affordability issues, forecasting a minor sales dip in 2025 before experiencing recovery next year.
- The Thompson-Okanagan region anticipates a slight decline in home sales this year, yet looks forward to a stronger recovery in 2026.
- Northern B.C. remains notably resilient in the face of economic challenges, expecting stable sales throughout 2025 and slight growth in 2026.
- The Kootenay region continues to perform well, bolstered by better affordability conditions, forecasting a healthy increase in sales this year.
BCREA underscores that while current economic challenges, particularly those stemming from international trade disruptions, are significant, gradual improvement and stability in the housing market are anticipated as clarity around economic and trade policies emerges.
