Canadians are increasingly divided on where the country’s economy is heading in a year. The Bank of Canada (BoC) released the results of its Q1 2025 Consumer Outlook Survey (COS) showing a record share of households fear losing their job. Over 1 in 5 consumers believe they will lose their job within the next 12-months, as the economy slows. However, not all consumers feel this way—a similar share of consumers also plan to leave their job voluntarily over the same timeline, indicating economic confidence.
Over 1 In 5 Canadian Consumers Expect To Lose Their Job In A Year
The share of Canadians who believe they’ll lose their job within the next 12 months.
Source: Bank of Canada.
A large share of Canadian households are uncertain about the stability of their job. The BoC survey found that over 1 in 5 (20.7%) of consumers expect to lose their job within the next 12 months. That’s a sharp 5.3 point climb from the previous quarter, and an increase of 9.9 points from last year. A dual-front trade war is almost certainly at the root of these eroding expectations.
Canada has never before seen such a high share of consumers expecting to lose their job. The previous record was set at 18.2% in Q2 2020, when consumers faced physical barriers to work. Back in 2020 was also the only other time consumer confidence eroded so quickly.
Take This Job & Shove It? Over 1 In 5 Consumers Also Plan To Leave Their Job
The share of Canadians who plan to voluntarily leave their job within the next 12 months.
Source: Bank of Canada.
Not all Canadian households appear to be worried about the economy. The “take this job and shove it” indicator, formally known as the share of households that expect to voluntarily leave their job within 12-months, remained high. Since most people don’t quit unless they’re confident they can find work relatively fast, this indicator is generally a sign of consumer strength.
Just over 1 in 5 (20.2%) consumers plan to leave their job voluntarily within 12-months. That’s up 1 point from the previous quarter, and 0.9 points from last year. It’s not quite the record high of 25.5% hit in Q3 2022, but it’s higher than usual.
The data reveals a tale of two consumers. About 1 in 5 consumers fear they’ll lose their job within 12 months. At the same time, a similar volume are confident that the economy is so strong they can leave their job and be fine. These two indicators have historically had an inverse relationship, and the synchronicity emphasizes just how much of a wild card the next few months will be.
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