December sales dip, while year-end figures show resilience
As 2024 came to an end, Canada’s housing market followed its typical seasonal trend, slowing in December after an active fall, according to the latest market report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
While sales activity dipped slightly, the market showed significant strength in the final quarter of the year.
December sales cool but stay above mid-year levels
Home sales activity in December 2024 fell by 5.8% compared to November. Despite this dip, sales were still 13% higher than in May, before the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate cut in June. The fourth quarter overall was strong, with sales up 10% from Q3, making it one of the most active quarters in the past 20 years, excluding the pandemic period.
“The number of homes sold across Canada declined in December compared to a stronger October and November, although that was likely more of a supply story than a demand story,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “Our forecast continues to be for a significant unleashing of demand in the spring of 2025, with the expected bottom for interest rates coinciding with sellers listing properties for sale in big numbers once the snow melts.”
Fewer new listings as inventory tightens
New listings declined by 1.7% month over month in December, marking three consecutive months of shrinking supply since a surge in September. At year’s end, there were 128,000 properties for sale, a 7.8% increase from December 2023. However, this remains well below the long-term average of 150,000 active listings.
The national sales-to-new listings ratio eased slightly to 56.9% in December from 59.3% in November, aligning with balanced market conditions. Inventory increased marginally to 3.9 months nationally, up from 3.6 months in November, but this figure still leans toward a seller’s market.
Home prices hold steady
The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 0.3% from November to December, marking the second consecutive monthly increase. On an annual basis, the HPI was down just 0.2% compared to December 2023, the smallest year-over-year decline since prices turned negative last April.
Meanwhile, the national average home price reached $676,640, up 2.5% from December 2023, showing the market’s resilience despite seasonal fluctuations.
With balanced conditions and stabilizing prices, Canada’s real estate market wrapped up 2024 on solid footing, setting the stage for an interesting year ahead, according to CREA.
“While housing market activity may take a breather over the winter with fewer properties for sale, the fall market rebound serves as a good preview of what could happen this spring,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “Spring in real estate always comes earlier than both sellers and buyers anticipate.”