Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
How Canada’s Slowing Population Growth Is Fixing The Job Market
Canada was warned that slowing population growth would hurt its economy—but it might be helping. Its rising unemployment rate wasn’t the result of job losses, but the inability for the market to create them fast enough. The balance of population growth to job creation is now much better, after returning to historical immigration targets, which were robust and manageable. A significant job deficit still remains, but policymakers are moving in the right direction. As long as they can stay the course.
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Canadian Rents Fall For A 9th Month But Declines Are Slowing
Canadian rental apartment prices are falling but the last drop barely registered. The average asking price for an apartment rental fell to $2,125 in June, just $4/month lower than a month prior. Prices are now 2.7% lower than last year, with last month marking the 9th consecutive month of declines. Despite prices falling, they remain 23% higher than they were 5 years ago, and with those drops getting smaller—it’s unclear how much progress households can expect when it comes to further drops.
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Canadian Mortgage Delinquencies Rise But Largely Boosted By Toronto
Canadian mortgage delinquencies are rising aggressively, but they may be concentrated in a few markets. The Equifax mortgage delinquency rate jumped to 0.22% in Q1 2025, hitting the highest level in 4 years. This was largely boosted by a historic volume in the country’s largest market—Toronto. Canada’s national rate, while rising aggressively, still remains below 2019 volumes.
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Canada’s Fiscal Picture Is “Cloudy,” Deficit May Hit $80 Billion: BMO
Canada’s fiscal picture is looking cloudier by the day, according to the country’s oldest bank. BMO Capital Markets warned investors this week that the massive deficit planned will be even larger, as “new” revenue streams were weaker than anticipated. For example, the LPC platform anticipated collecting $20 billion in counter tariffs from Canadians this year, but trade deal delays have dropped this to less than half. The bank anticipates the deficit can hit as high as $80 billion by the end of the year, making it one of the largest in Canadian history. They suggest spreading out some planned spending to mitigate the pressure on public finances.
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Toronto Real Estate
Toronto Mortgage Delinquencies Have Tripled, Highest In Over A Decade
Toronto real estate got more bad news—its mortgage delinquency rate surged to the highest level since at least 2012, more than tripling from a record low three years ago. Unlike the national trend, or cities like Vancouver, Toronto’s rise stands out. This aligns with the idea that delinquencies reflect poor liquidity, not just consumer stress. With weak sales, borrowers hoping to sell are facing stiff competition—a strong indicator that prices are stretched at current levels.
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Vancouver Real Estate
Vancouver Real Estate Sales Fall, Most Inventory Since BoC Suggested A Bubble
Greater Vancouver real estate has held up better than Toronto, but that may be changing. REBGV data shows June home sales hit their second-lowest level in 25 years—26% below its 10-year average for the month. A demand slump has also pushed inventory to its highest June level since 2013. For a market known for global appeal and tight supply, this shift is significant. Prices are only slightly lower than last year, but this shift could accelerate the downturn.
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