Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Unemployment Soars, Driven By Immigration More Than Tariffs
Canadian unemployment climbed but it wasn’t due to tariffs as expected. The unemployment rate hit 7.0% in May, with the unemployed population hitting 1.6 million. The employed population grew as well—the problem is the country added 4 workers for every job it created. This isn’t so much a tariff issue as it’s the result of trying to force growth through overly aggressive immigration.
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Canadian Real Estate Buying Opportunity “Still Not There”: BMO
Canadian real estate sales are falling and inventory is climbing—but it’s not a buying opportunity, yet. BMO warns that buyers are now in control of the market, but they believe home sales won’t rise meaningfully until mortgage rates drop below 4%. With bond yields moving in the wrong direction, that’s unlikely to happen in the short-term, providing more downward pressure on prices.
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Toronto Real Estate Prices Climb Despite Worst May On Record
Toronto real estate just printed its worst month of demand on record, but that didn’t stop prices from climbing. The price of a typical home climbed across TRREB, despite the worst sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) on record for May. Typically such weak demand leads to falling prices, but sellers have been resistant hoping a change in demand is just around the corner. That can change fast if the economy suffers a downturn.
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All In? Canadian Bank Loans For Real Estate Development Double In One Year
Canada’s chartered banks are suddenly betting big on real estate development. Real estate development loans, once too risky for banks, have doubled over the past year. Behind the move is a series of state-backed programs meant to de-risk the process for lenders by transferring the risk to taxpayers.
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Bank of Canada Won’t Cut In June, Government Policies May Boost Inflation: BMO
BMO correctly called the Bank of Canada (BoC) skipping rate cuts in June, even with the economic slowdown. Lofty inflation that’s still accelerating was the primary justification, raising concerns the central bank has lost control of its only mandate. At the same time, there are a number of policies that may contribute to even higher inflation, such as state-backed infrastructure stimulus and tax cuts.
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