Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canada’s GDP Per Capita Crisis: 4 Provinces Grow, Others Fall—Some Back To 2020
Canada’s population is growing much faster than its economy, and the problem is reaching a crisis level. GDP per capita fell 1.4% in 2024, implying the country is seeing a decline in real income, and quality of life. However, a provincial breakdown shows not all provinces are being hit equally—four actually showed gains last year. In a similar fashion, the losses weren’t equal either: Provinces like Alberta have lofty numbers that can better afford a decline, unlike BC and Ontario which have rolled back to 2020 levels. If they struggled during stable times, these provinces should brace themselves for a recession exacerbated by a Trade War.
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Canadian Recession Probability Rises, Era of Low Rates Over: BoC
Canada’s recession probability is on the rise, according to the central bank’s expert survey. The Bank of Canada (BoC) released the results of its MPS, a survey of the financial experts that helps guide the central bank’s policy. In Q1 2025, expectations of a recession within 12 months had climbed considerably. Easing monetary policy is seen relieving some pressure and stabilizing inflation, but rates are still forecast to remain above 2.0 points for the next few years. That would keep rates higher than any point from 2008 to 2022, reinforcing the BoC’s earlier suggestion that the era of low rates may be over.
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Canada’s Housing Platforms Suck, But Who Has The Most Predatory Plan?
Canadians disappointed by election results can relax about the impact on housing affordability, because both of the major platforms sucked in this area. Both major platforms promised to build a comically unrealistic volume of homes which experts have taken aim at before. Both candidates also pushed policies incentivizing investment and zoning changes that would raise the input costs of building a home (and thus raise prices). The only real difference is the approach on how they would reach the same outcome. So relax. Young adults were screwed either way.
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Canadian GDP Contracts, Real Estate Posts Largest Drop Since 2022
Canada’s GDP per capita isn’t the only red flag—aggregate GDP is now declining too. GDP fell 0.2% in February as a result of declining mining, oil & gas, and [drumroll] real estate! The country’s unusually high concentration of industry around real estate has left it particularly vulnerable to the recent slow down. Construction, a major component of GDP, saw a sharp decline as a slowdown in homebuilding weighed heavily. The activity at offices of agents and brokers, such as commissions and property management fees, also saw the sharpest drop since 2022, producing the 4th biggest downforce on GDP.
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Canada’s Young Workers Are Fleeing Every Province But Alberta
Young workers (aged 24 to 44 years old) are an incredibly important demographic. This is the age range where people hit peak earning and spending growth—the latter of which is essential for an economy’s future. Afterall, this is when people typically buy their first car, first home, and start a family. Alberta, the only province to see a net gain of this demographic, has been actively courting these workers. Great news for their economic outlook, but that’s also bad news for the provinces that have yet to realize what they’re losing.
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