The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate downturn continued with new homes last month. Altus Group data shows April was the worst month for new home sales on record. Lofty inventory and weak demand continue to apply downward pressure on prices, though they remain sticky at current levels. With demand at a record bottom, that may change quickly.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Are Lower, But Not Cheap
The price of a benchmark (typical) new home across Greater Toronto.
Source: Altus Group.
Greater Toronto new home prices are still falling. The benchmark (typical) single-family home fell 5.4% to $1.53 million in April. Condos are down to $1.02 million, 3.6% lower than last year. Both segments now trade near mid-2021 levels—a prolonged stagnation, though still retaining half their pandemic-era gains.
Greater Toronto New Home Sales Just Had The Worst Month Ever
Demand for new homes across the GTA has reached unprecedented lows. Only 310 new homes were sold in April, down 72% from last year and 89% below the 10-year average. It was the weakest month on record, with nothing even close over the past 30 years of data.
Greater Toronto New Home Inventory At Levels Not Seen In A Decade
On the upside, inventory of new homes continues to build across Greater Toronto. Single-family inventory is up 33% from last year, joining the condo glut. The sharp rise pushed total inventory to 21,363 new homes in April, up 6.3% from last year. Inventory hasn’t been this high in nearly a decade, with current market activity working out to 15 months of supply.
A balanced market typically has 4 to 6 months of inventory. Current levels far exceed this range, firmly establishing a buyer’s market where downward pressure on prices emerges. While new home prices have declined moderately, the drop doesn’t quite reflect the full impact of this inventory surge. This stubborn pricing helps explain the dramatic demand collapse we’re witnessing.
Greater Toronto New Home Sales: Tariff Uncertainty Or Overpriced?
The industry attributed slow demand to the economic anxiety caused by tariff negotiations. “April 2025 new home sales across the GTA have extended the slowest period of sales on record… buyers crave predictability, and the swirling uncertainty around tariffs is depriving would-be purchasers of the confidence they need,” said Edward Jegg, research manager at Altus Group.
Tariff uncertainty isn’t helping to inspire confidence, but it’s far from the only issue. There have been just 1,569 new homes sold year to date, down 58% from last year—it wasn’t just the past few weeks when tariff discussions ramped up. Last year also saw the weakest sales since the 90s crash—and 2024 pre-dates tariff talks.
Greater Toronto’s sudden decline in demand more likely has to do with persistent levels of unaffordability, rising unemployment, and prime-aged workers fleeing to provinces like Alberta.