Toronto’s real estate bubble just lost another key pillar: jobs. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows the Toronto CMA unemployment rate is nearing double-digits, with Mississauga and Brampton already well above 10%. What was once one of the country’s strongest job markets is now cracking—raising questions about short-term value and the long-term sustainability of a housing market once seen as untouchable.
Greater Toronto’s Job Market Is Spiraling: Unemployment Surges
Toronto CMA unemployment rate (unadjusted 3-month average).
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
The Greater Toronto job market is crumbling faster than the national average. The CMA’s unemployment rate hit 9.4% in August, up 0.1 points from July and 0.8 points higher than last year. That’s well above the national rate, despite being a major landing spot for job seekers and newcomers.
Unemployment this high is rare in Canada. Toronto CMA hasn’t seen a rate this elevated outside of the pandemic since 2012, and even then, it hovered at or above 9.4% only briefly during the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. The region’s population has since grown 20%, magnifying the fallout.
Toronto Has More Unemployed People Than Halifax Has Workers
Toronto CMA unemployed population (unadjusted 3-month average).
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
A nearly double-digit jobless rate translates to a staggering number of people. StatCan estimates 390.3k Toronto CMA residents were unemployed in August, up 11.1% from last year. That’s not just high—it’s 22% of all unemployed in Canada, concentrated in a single economic region.
To put that in perspective: Toronto now has more unemployed people than the entire labour force of Greater Halifax. Add Fredericton, and it still falls short.
City of Toronto Unemployment Rate Nears 10%; Brampton & Mississauga Even Higher
Canadian CMA unemployment rates, with selected cities in the Toronto CMA highlighted in blue (unadjusted 3-month average).
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
The City of Toronto job market is even worse than the CMA and the national average. The City’s unemployment rate hit 9.8% in August, up 1.1 points from last year and 0.4 points above the CMA average. That’s 1.8 points higher than the national rate—making job seekers in Toronto 22% more likely to be unemployed than the national average. Only two CMAs have higher unemployment rates.
Meanwhile, some neighbouring cities within the CMA are faring much better. Vaughan’s unemployment rate was 7.8%, up 0.4 points on the month. Markham came in at 7.9%, down 0.4 points. Both consistently outperform the region and remain below the national average.
At the other end of the spectrum, Brampton’s unemployment rate has surged to 11.7%, while Mississauga hit 11.1%. These cities routinely post higher jobless rates than Toronto, pointing to deeper, structural economic divergence within the region.
Toronto Real Estate’s Long-Term Risk: A Collapsing Job Market
Toronto’s job market erosion poses both immediate and structural risks to real estate. The city has some of the highest shelter costs in Canada, and while policymakers are trying to prop up demand with easier credit, leverage doesn’t help people without incomes. That’s likely why flooding the market with cheap credit hasn’t worked as expected.
The unemployed don’t drive discretionary spending or housing demand. Instead, they’re more likely to leave for more affordable markets as costs rise and job prospects fade.
Longer term, the city’s concentration of high-value industries like finance, insurance, and healthcare, adds risk. These sectors fueled population growth and attracted some of the world’s most talented people. However, if these industries unwind or decentralize, Toronto will struggle to compete with more affordable cities that offer a higher quality of life.